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Study: Brazil could top 90,000 Covid-19 deaths

. May 14, 2020
Study: Brazil could top 90,000 Covid-19 total deaths Photo: Shutterstock

Brazil could register over 90,000 Covid-19-related deaths, according to a new study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) of the University of Washington. With 86 million Brazilians in the at-risk group, the study estimates that the total number of deaths in the country could range between 30,300 and 193,700, although the official prediction is that 88,305 people should die of Covid-19 by August 4.

The model also predicts that the country will register over 1,000 daily deaths between June 17 and July 9. The national peak is expected to be around June 24, when at least 1,024 deaths are projected.

Of all Latin American countries, Brazil is by far the one with the worst forecasts. The neighboring nations with the highest estimated death tolls after Brazil are Mexico, with 6,859 projected deaths, and Peru, with 6,428. While the latter has been on full lockdown since March 15, both Mexico and Brazil have been dealing with leaders who have overlooked the severity of the pandemic. The three countries top the number of Covid-19 cases in the region.

The study indicates that the state of São Paulo alone is expected to register nearly 37,000 deaths. As of now, the state is the epicenter of the novel coronavirus in Brazil. With 4,118 reported deaths as of yesterday, it is responsible for almost one-third of the country’s victims.With 13,149 deaths, Brazil currently ranks fifth in the number of Covid-19 deaths worldwide, according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.

 
Augusta Saraiva

Augusta is a Brazilian journalism student at Northwestern University

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