Market roundup: Who stands to gain from the Americanas crisis

Who stands to gain from the Americanas crisis

With embattled retailer Americanas fighting a war with banks, multiple securities investigations, and struggling with massive debt, other retailers may be able to capitalize on their rival’s misfortune and gain market share. At least, that’s what some analysts are saying.

State of play. Among its listed competitors, Mercado Libre is in the best position. The Argentina-based company is already the leading e-commerce player in Latin America and could become even more dominant. But Amazon’s Brazilian subsidiary, Magazine Luiza, and Via (owner of traditional retail chain Casas Bahia) could also benefit from Americanas’s demise.

Estimates. Citi estimates that Mercado Libre would steal most of the sales volume in absolute terms, but that Magazine Luiza would grow more in terms of gross merchandising value. The bank used traffic data from SimilarWeb and determined visitor overlap between Americanas and the other retailers, also taking into account the current share of online sales in each company’s revenue.

• The biggest overlap is with Mercado Libre, which shares 78.5 percent of its audience with Americanas, followed by Magazine Luiza (58.4 percent), and Via (37.2 percent).

Marketplaces. Mercado Libre would capture most of the typical marketplace buyers — i.e., customers accustomed to buying from third-party sellers....