Are the halcyon days of Brazilian real estate coming to an end?

The coronavirus pandemic transformed Brazilians’ idea of home life. Remote work and decreased social interactions led to a newfound appreciation of dwellings as leisure and workspaces, worthy of improvement. As a result, the country’s real estate sector boomed, with a spate of new property launches and record sales leading to positive numbers that surged throughout 2020 and spilled over into 2021, as well.

Furthermore, historically low benchmark interest rates made real estate financing more attractive and accessible — but this trend was soon reversed. Spiraling double-digit inflation coaxed the Central Bank into jacking up the Selic interest rate at a dramatic pace during 2021. Real estate financing is expected to become even harder to obtain in the first half of this year.

These negative economic trends could easily derail expectations for real estate, yet the sector remains optimistic. But, for how long?

In São Paulo, for instance, local organizations have called 2021 one of the sector’s best years on record. According to data from state housing union Secovi-SP, almost 50,000 new units were launched between January and September this year — double the same period in 2020 and...